Black Friday Record Sales vs Real Profits for DTC Brands

Did 2025’s record-breaking Black Friday/Cyber Monday truly boost profits for direct-to-consumer brands? On the surface, Shopify operators and DTC founders celebrated unprecedented top-line numbers. But as the dust settles, the crucial question remains: how much profit was actually realized? If you're running a brand, you know revenue grabs the headlines, but margins pay the bills.

Let's cut through the hype and explore what these historic e-commerce figures mean for operator profit and long-term brand health.

BFCM 2025: Sales Records Shattered

The Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend in 2025 set a new standard for U.S. online shopping. According to Adobe Analytics, Americans spent $44.2 billion online over the five-day Thanksgiving stretch, marking a 7.7% increase from 2024 (AP News).

A look at the Thanksgiving shopping weekend and what’s next

The nation’s shoppers may feel gloomy about the economy, but they certainly were in the mood to shop over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend that wrapped up on Cyber Monday.

AP NewsANNE D’INNOCENZIO

Cyber Monday alone saw $14.25 billion in sales—the largest single online shopping day ever recorded. Black Friday itself wasn't far behind, with $11.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 9.1% year-over-year (LinkedIn).

Adobe Analytics: Black Friday 2025 Ecommerce Records Broken | Martin Goetzinger posted on the topic | LinkedIn

BLACK FRIDAY 2025: Adobe #Analytics is tracking some crazy stats! 1. #BlackFriday 2025 broke eCommerce records: $11.8B spent online (up 9.1% YoY), 2. #AI-powered shopping surged 805%, 3. Consumers also took advantage of “Buy Now, Pay Later” options to the tune of $747M. 4. #Adobe expects consumers will spend a record $14.2 billion online today for Cyber Monday, up 6.3% YoY. And the craziest to happen in just a few hours (Between the hours of 8 pm and 10 pm today) online spending is expected to peak, with $16 million spent every minute. This data is collected via Adobe Analytics, analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is relied upon by the majority of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S. to deliver and measure shopping experiences online. FULL REPORT: https://lnkd.in/eTGU3Pqj

LinkedInMartin Goetzinger

Shopify merchants thrived, collectively generating a record $14.6 billion globally—a 27% surge over last year (Shopify Newsroom). Over 81 million consumers shopped from Shopify-powered stores, with sales peaking at $5.1 million per minute at the Black Friday high (Shopify Investors). For many DTC founders, it was the biggest weekend in their company’s history.

Shopify merchants generate record-breaking $14.6 billion in Black Friday Cyber Monday sales

Record-breaking Black Friday Cyber Monday sees Shopify merchants reach $14.6 billion in sales as 81+ million shoppers support independent brands.

Shopify

What drove the surge? Primarily, bigger baskets—not more buyers. While order volumes remained flat, the average order value (AOV) rose by 8–10% year-over-year. An analysis of 147 DTC brands (totaling $127M in BFCM revenue) confirmed that growth stemmed from customers spending more per purchase, rather than a massive influx of new shoppers (Common Thread Collective). The rise of Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) also played a role, with Adobe tracking over $747 million in BNPL-fueled sales on Black Friday alone (LinkedIn), helping budget-conscious shoppers stretch their dollars.

47 Brands, $127M: What Really Worked on BFCM This Year

In this episode of The DTC Hotline, we unpack what actually happened during BFCM across 147 brands, representing $127M in revenue and $25M in media spend. We break down: The macro story: 8–10% YoY growth, flat order volume, rising AOV, and the surge in BNPL Why UGC video and 3–4x more creative output became the unlock in a post-Advantage+ world The shock appearance of AppLovin as the #3 channel in our dataset The “tight window” offer strategies that outperformed month-long promotions How brands used novelty, micro-peaks, and parachute offers to rescue underperforming days Hour-by-hour media pacing: why BFCM requires real-time decision making Tactical stories from accounts that flipped their day by switching offers or duplicating campaigns The emerging pattern: more spend, more creative, less fixed cost → the only way through 2025+ Plus: Luke and Tony give their unfiltered takes on Dubai, what felt surreal, and what they learned from meeting the accelerator team IRL. If you want the real BFCM insights—not recycled takes—this is the recap brands are using to plan 2025. Show Notes: Explore the Prophit System: prophitsystem.com The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your ecomm questions.

Common Thread Collective

But Did All That Revenue Translate to Profit?

Here's where the story gets more complicated. Behind the scenes, many founders echo a familiar refrain: top-line numbers are impressive, but profit margins tell the real story. For numerous mid-sized DTC brands, the 2025 BFCM boom came at a cost.

Discounting: The Double-Edged Sword

This year's discounts weren't for the faint-hearted. Adobe noted that promotional offers peaked at around 30% off during Cyber Week (AP News). DTC operators felt the pressure to match big-box "doorbuster" deals, often slashing prices on flagship products just to stay competitive.

The catch: every percentage point off is a hit to your margin. If you're discounting heavily and spending aggressively on ads, you're stacking risk on risk. As one e-commerce strategist put it,

"Brands slash prices, burn ad dollars, and end up with empty profits and a pile of returns" (LinkedIn).

It's a sobering reality check: a spike in orders means little if your discounts have eroded the margin on every cart.

Most brands lose money on Black Friday. → Because they chase revenue, not profit. BFCM isn’t a sales contest, it’s a margin contest. Klaviyo just published my playbook on staying profitable during… | Omar Lovert | 11 comments

Most brands lose money on Black Friday. → Because they chase revenue, not profit. BFCM isn’t a sales contest, it’s a margin contest. Klaviyo just published my playbook on staying profitable during BFCM (also featuring Ashley, Ben Zettler, George and Jemma). After working with 60+ ecommerce brands, and auditing many more, at Polaris Growth, here’s the pattern I see every year: Brands slash prices, burn ad dollars… and end up with empty profits and a pile of returns. The truth is: → Revenue means nothing if your margins are gone. → Flashy sales can hide a mountain of costs. → Higher post sale returns rate cause increase costs & cashflow issues → Vanity metrics never pay the bills. Do this instead👇 ✅ Use tiered free gifts to create perceived value without gutting margin (Ben Zettler’s go-to) ✅ Trigger cross-sell flows with Klaviyo AI at the exact moment of intent (Ashley Ismailovski) ✅ Compress the post-BFCM window to drive urgency + clear inventory fast (George Rodríguez) ✅ Sync Klaviyo audiences to Meta to drop CAC by $10+ per customer (Jemma Sears) ✅ Run every promo through this test: “Does this raise contribution margin after COGS, shipping, payment fees, returns, and media?” If not, kill it. Profit-first checklist to run this week: 1. Map true costs for every offer 2. Build tiered incentives (value > discount) 3. Turn on profit-driving cross/upsell flows 4. Shorten promo windows to keep urgency high 5. Sync best segments to Meta for cheaper reach 6. Track contribution margin daily (not just ROAS) 🔥Hot take: ROAS is a decoy during BFCM. Contribution margin keeps the lights on. Want the full breakdown? Read the whole blog. 👉 Link in comments. Question for you: What tactic are you cutting or adding this BFCM that is not on my list? Drop it below. | 11 comments on LinkedIn

LinkedInOmar Lovert

CAC and Ad Costs: The Silent Profit Killer

The battle for BFCM attention has never been more expensive. According to Triple Whale data tracking nearly 50,000 Shopify stores, brands spent $607 million on ads to drive $2.9 billion in sales during BFCM (Direct to Consumer). That's roughly $0.21 in advertising for every $1 in revenue—before considering shipping, returns, or fulfillment. A Common Thread Collective dataset mirrored this, with ~20% of BFCM revenue going directly to paid media (Common Thread Collective).

📦 - Black Friday Success Trends To Know - DTC Newsletter | DTC Newsletter Dec 08, 2025

Pilothouse shares BFCM learnings that saw clients hit $1M revenue per month and how brands can use these trends to scale in December and beyond | Published in the DTC Newsletter on Dec 08, 2025

DTC Newsletter Dec 08, 2025

Consider this: if your gross margin is 60%, and you're spending 20% on ads and 30% on discounts, you're fighting for scraps before even covering overhead. One Shopify seller noted their brand pulled in over $30,000 in BFCM sales but netted only about $5,000 in profit—a 16% margin (Reddit). Volume doesn’t always equal victory.

The Hidden Costs: Returns, Shipping, and BNPL Fees

It's not just discounts and ads: free shipping, increased return rates, and payment processing fees (especially with BNPL) have quietly eroded BFCM profitability (LinkedIn). The post-BFCM hangover is real: higher returns in January, delayed revenue recognition, and "demand pull-forward" (where your best customers simply buy earlier at lower margins).

In Europe, even as Black Friday transaction volumes jumped 53% and total value grew 136% in 2024, much of that gain vanished due to delivery costs, platform commissions, and poorly planned discounts (Client Profitability Support).

“Revenue is Vanity, Profit is Sanity”—A 2025 Refrain

Veteran DTC operators are sounding the alarm: don't let record sales overshadow the health of your business. As marketing strategist Omar Lovert summed up,

"Most brands lose money on Black Friday because they chase revenue, not profit. BFCM isn’t a sales contest—it’s a margin contest" (LinkedIn).

The risk? Black Friday numbers look great in isolation, but when January arrives and the costs, returns, and customer service headaches come due, founders can find themselves in the red (LinkedIn). The question every founder needs to ask: "Did we actually make money, or just move product?"

Rethinking BFCM: Beyond the Quick Win

So what’s the answer for growth-minded, profit-focused founders?

Yes, BFCM brings a surge of new customers and a chance to clear inventory. But if those sales come at the expense of profitability, the real work begins after the holidays. The brands winning long term are those who maximize the LTV (lifetime value) of BFCM-acquired customers—turning one-time buyers into loyalists who return at full price (The Cirqle).

How DTC Brands Turn 2025’s Black Friday Buyers Into Year-Round Customers With Influencers - The Cirqle

Turn Black Friday spikes into year-round growth. Use creator trust, education, and allowlisted ads to lift repeat purchases, CAC discipline, and cohort LTV in 2025.

The CirqleSteven Lammertink

This is where thoughtful operators are getting creative—using both automation and genuine human connection to retain and monetize new customers.

The 2026 Playbook: Profit-First Growth

BFCM 2025 showed that record revenue is possible, but real winners will be the brands who protected their margins and set themselves up for repeat business. As the DTC community looks ahead, expect even more focus on profitable growth—not just growth at any cost.

If you’re serious about building a durable brand, let this be the year you measure success in dollars kept, not just dollars earned.

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