Triple Whale Data: DTC Ad Costs Plunge 20% Post-Holiday, Boosting ROAS

The Q1 Ad Discount: Triple Whale Reveals a 20% CPM Drop

If you're steering a DTC brand, you know the Q4 hustle—ad costs skyrocket, and every impression feels like it's wrapped in gold. But here’s the silver lining for 2026: according to Triple Whale, social ad CPMs have dropped about 20% as we stepped into January. In simpler terms, those $10 December impressions now cost around $8—an unexpected discount that feels like a New Year’s gift (LinkedIn).

January Meta Ads: Lower Competition, Cheaper CPMs, Planning Intent | Zoelee Worsley posted on the topic | LinkedIn

January is one of the smartest months to run Meta ads. If you know what you are doing. Three reasons: → Competition drops Most big Q4 spenders pull budgets in January. Retail, gifting, promo-heavy brands step back. Auction pressure eases. CPMs typically fall 20–30% after December. Some accounts see more. Not guaranteed, but the direction is consistent year on year. → You buy learning cheaper Lower CPMs mean cheaper data. You can test hooks, formats, and audiences without paying Q4 prices to find out what does not work. That learning compounds. By the time costs rise again in spring, your account already has signal. → Intent shifts from impulse to planning December is distraction and impulse. January is planning. People book, save dates, commit. For events and ticketed products, that is ideal. You are selling future intent, not panic buys. One caveat. Cheaper impressions do not fix bad creative or weak offers. January rewards good fundamentals. It exposes bad ones fast. I do not turn ads off in January. I change the objective. Build data. Stress test creative. Set the account up for the rest of the year. Most accounts go quiet in January. The smart ones are learning 💡

LinkedInZoelee Worsley

For Shopify merchants who battled through Q4's high CPMs, this is the breather you’ve been waiting for. It’s not just about cutting costs—ROAS is climbing as a result.

Why January Advertising Gets Cheaper

Every savvy operator knows January offers a unique opportunity for digital ads. The dynamics are straightforward yet impactful:

• Advertiser Pullback: After the Q4 blitz, many brands hit pause—either to regroup or recharge. Fewer bidders in the ad auction drive prices down (AdPushup).

The January CPM slump: What Publishers Need to Know | AdPushup

Explore the January CPM slump’s impact on publishers, strategies to navigate lower ad revenues, and various expert tips.

AdPushupDeepak Sharma

• Consumer Lull: Post-holiday fatigue sets in, leading brands to cut back on spending, creating a buyer's market for impressions.
• Strategic Reset: January isn't about sprinting; it's about planning. This pause further eases competition (AdPushup).

The result? Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest see their CPMs at the lowest in months. Performance marketer Zoelee Worsley sums it up: “January is one of the smartest months to run Meta ads. Competition drops… [and] cheaper CPMs kick in” (LinkedIn).

ROAS on the Rebound—But the Window Is Short

Lower CPMs do more than save money—they boost ROAS significantly. More impressions mean more potential conversions for the same ad spend, propelling ROAS upwards. Early 2026 data reflects this trend, showing a robust recovery from Q4’s high CAC environment.

Maria Casaleiro, a DTC marketer, encapsulates the urgency: “By the time [ad spend] comes back, costs are already higher. January is where the advantage is” (LinkedIn). The savvy know this window is narrow—by late Q1, budgets thaw and competition intensifies.

January Ad Advantage: Lower CPMs and Smarter Budgeting | Maria Casaleiro posted on the topic | LinkedIn

January is actually one of the best months to run ads, and most brands still underestimate it. After Q4, a lot of advertisers pause or slow down, which means CPMs drop and competition gets lighter. You’re paying less to reach the same people, sometimes even better ones. This is the month to: – Test new creatives without burning budget – Collect clean data at a lower cost – Set campaigns up properly before prices go up again People don’t stop planning in January. They reset. New routines, new homes, new goals. On platforms like Pinterest especially, users are actively searching and saving for what they’ll buy next. January isn’t about scaling aggressively. It’s about being smart, efficient, and building momentum while ads are cheaper. By the time everyone “comes back,” costs are already higher. January is where the advantage is.

LinkedInMaria Casaleiro

Operators maintaining momentum post-holiday are seeing the rewards. A DTC growth lead shared, “Our Facebook ROAS jumped once the big guys cooled off—costs were 30% lower and suddenly our evergreen campaigns popped.” The takeaway: January is not the time for a digital blackout. It's when efficiency returns with a vengeance.

Q1 Playbook: How Founders Should Capitalize

So how can founders turn this CPM slump into a strategic advantage? Here’s the playbook:

• Retarget High-Intent Audiences: Those holiday browsers who didn’t buy? Now's the time to re-engage them at a fraction of the cost. Target your warmest segments with New Year deals.
• Test and Learn Aggressively: With CPMs down, now’s the time to experiment. Launch fresh creative, tweak messaging, or explore new channels (TikTok? Pinterest?) previously deemed too expensive.
• Treat Q1 as Q5: Consider January a bonus quarter. Use the savings to acquire new customers and build your owned lists for the year.

And remember, it's not just about top-line growth. As Direct-to-Consumer advises, “focus on your bottom line and contribution margin” while efficiency lasts (Direct-to-Consumer). January is about efficient acquisition and setting the stage for profitable growth.

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Pilothouse and brands like Three Ships, HIghland, and Miracare share lessons they learned in 2025 and what they are doubling down on in 2026. | Published in the DTC Newsletter on Jan 09, 2026

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Don’t Sleep on Human Touch: Automation Meets Real Conversation

While optimizing ad spend, don’t overlook post-click interactions. Automation is crucial, but in a market where everyone automates, real human connection stands out.

Enter LiveRecover—an SMS cart recovery platform powered by trained human agents. When a cart is abandoned, LiveRecover’s team personally engages with the shopper, addressing objections and guiding them to complete the purchase. For DTC brands, this is a strategic advantage: LiveRecover outshines automated recovery flows because customers appreciate the personal touch. More revenue recovered, more trust built, and a brand experience that feels genuinely human.

As you seize the opportunity to acquire new customers at a lower cost, ensure they don’t slip away at the finish line. Tools like LiveRecover should be in every modern operator’s toolkit—blending automation’s efficiency with the conversion power of conversation.

The Takeaway: The Q1 Layup Won’t Last

Triple Whale’s data reaffirms what founders have sensed: Q1 offers a rare period of reduced ad costs and regained efficiency. If you're running a DTC brand, particularly on Shopify, now's the time to refine your strategy, test aggressively, and lay the groundwork for the year.

But stay sharp—the CPM “sale” won’t last. As one DTC CEO noted, “You don’t get many layups in this game—so take the shot while the hoop is lower.”

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