How Shopify DTC Brands Are Winning the Early Back-to-School Surge

Back-to-school shopping isn’t waiting for the bell. In 2025, families are hitting “buy” weeks ahead of schedule—67% had started by early July, smashing every record and forcing DTC operators to rethink what “peak season” really means (NRF).

NRF | Back-to-School Season Begins Early for Majority of Shoppers

Two-thirds of back-to-school shoppers had already begun purchasing items for the upcoming school year as of early July, according to the annual survey released by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

Back-to-School Season Begins Early for Majority of ShoppersNRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen

With tariff headlines and price hikes in the air, value-driven parents are playing chess while many brands are still setting up the board. Operators who adapted with July launches, omnichannel strategy, and sharper value props are winning this year’s BTS game—and the lessons will echo into Q4.

Why July Became the Back-to-School Battleground

The shift isn’t subtle. Last year, 55% of families had started BTS shopping by July. This year? Sixty-seven percent. The anxiety is real: 51% of parents say they’re moving early because they expect prices to jump, especially on imported goods (NRF; MMR).

Retailers saw it coming and front-loaded deals, making Prime Day the unofficial starting line. Amazon stretched Prime Day to four days, driving $24.1B in online spend—matching Black Friday/Cyber Monday combined (Digital Commerce 360). Nearly half of BTS shoppers began their hunt during that window (LinkedIn, Westerweel). For DTC brands, the old “August launch” just won’t cut it.

“If you’re in eCommerce, July is no longer the quiet mid-year dip. It’s a battleground… the clearest sign yet of where Q3 is heading.”
—Michael Westerweel, ChannelMojo (LinkedIn)

Amazon’s Prime Day turned into Prime Days. | Michael Westerweel

Amazon’s Prime Day turned into Prime Days. And Adobe just called it: 💣 $23.8 BILLION in U.S. online sales. Not for Amazon alone. That’s across all retailers. In just 4 days. In July. A new record. A new retail reality. Some wild details from Adobe’s forecast: 📱 Mobile is king: 52.5% of that spend will come from phones, totalling $12.5B. 🤖 AI is hunting deals: traffic from ChatGPT-style assistants is up 3,200% (!). 📦 Buy Now, Pay Later will cover up to $1.9B in sales. 🛍️ Retailers are stretching promotions to ride Amazon’s halo effect: think Walmart, Target, Best Buy. 🎒 Back-to-school season is already here: backpacks +225%, kidswear +200%. 📉 Online prices keep falling: yet shoppers are trading up to higher-priced items. Even Adobe calls it “two Black Fridays back-to-back.” (Last year’s actual Black Friday? $10.8B. This week’s forecast? $23.8B.) That’s not just a signal. That’s a foghorn. 💡 If you’re in eCommerce, July is no longer the quiet mid-year dip. It’s a battleground. A test. And maybe the clearest sign yet of where Q3 is heading. | 14 comments on LinkedIn

LinkedInMichael Westerweel

Value-Obsessed, Channel-Agnostic

Parents aren’t just buying early—they’re buying smarter, with value as the North Star. Forty-seven percent are holding off for the best deals; another quarter are spreading out spend (NRF). Price freezes, bundle deals, and loyalty rewards are what win wallets—not just markdowns.

Online is the default (55% of BTS shoppers), but omnichannel is the expectation. Families toggle from Amazon to Walmart to Shopify-powered DTCs, chasing the best offers and mobile-first checkout (NRF). Department and dollar stores still pull weight for bargain basics. Buy Online, Pick Up In Store (BOPIS) is a lifesaver for deal chasers who want certainty and speed.

“Social and AI drive spend. If your brand isn’t investing in shoppable content and discovery tools, you’re already behind.”
—Brian Tu, DTC strategist (LinkedIn)

Back-to-school is the second biggest shopping event of the year—and this year, it’s all about value. | Brian Tu

Back-to-school is the second biggest shopping event of the year—and this year, it’s all about value. Here are some highlights from the Deloitte back-to-school survey that jumped out at me - 1️⃣ Prime Day day is the starting line. 46% of parents plan to start their BTS shopping on Prime Day, and most spending wraps by the end of July. Brands that don’t have inventory in place early risk missing the biggest part of the season. From what I’ve seen, last week’s Prime Day delivered. 2️⃣ Consumers will trade speed for savings. 71% of shoppers are willing to wait longer if it means cheaper shipping. It’s a good reminder to rethink default shipping options. That said, I still believe you can offer both—affordable and fast. 3️⃣ Social and AI drive spend. Gen Z parents are looking to TikTok, Instagram, and ChatGPT to find deals. If your brand isn’t investing in shoppable content and discovery tools, you’re already behind. 4️⃣ Kids are the power buyers. 62% of parents say their kids influence purchases—and 90% say their child has a “must-have” item. The brands that win are the ones who nail DTC merchandising and influencer marketing. I look no further than my teenage daughter—she makes all her own buying decisions. Retailers may be sharpening pencils—but brands and ops teams should be sharpening forecasts, promotions, and fulfillment plans. https://lnkd.in/gZpM2ZiZ

LinkedInBrian Tu

The Data: Record Spend, Tighter Budgets

This is the paradox of BTS 2025: total spend will hit $39.4B—a record—even as average per-family spend drops to $858 (NRF). Apparel and tech are non-negotiables (tech alone: $13.6B nationwide). Parents are saying no to accessories, yes to the basics. For Shopify DTC brands, if you’re not selling essentials or packaging them as such, you’re fighting for scraps.

The “haves” are driving up college spend (average $1,326 per student), but lower-income shoppers are pulling back, choosing utility over style (SGB). Merchants see it: higher AOVs on must-haves, softer demand for anything that feels optional.

BTS Tactics That Actually Move the Needle

• Bundling: Not just a promo—parents perceive more value per dollar.
• Loyalty programs & member deals: Outperform sitewide sales for driving repeat.
• Buy Now, Pay Later: $1.9B in Prime Week spend, and rising (Digital Commerce 360).
• Price assurance: Target, Sam’s Club, and even DTCs are locking or matching prices to build urgency and trust (Modern Retail).

It’s not about racing to the bottom—it’s about selling ROI and trust. The smartest DTCs use the July rush to test offers, spot winning products early, and plan their Q3/Q4 pushes accordingly.

July Is the New August (and Probably the New October)

Here’s the real takeaway for DTC operators: the calendar has changed, and your playbook needs to change with it. Waiting until August is a missed opportunity. Treat July as a live lab for demand, creative, and inventory. Operators who lean in early are primed to repeat that success as holiday creep sets in for Q4. The consumer’s new mantra? “Buy early, buy smart.” The operator’s: “Launch early, learn fast.”

“July isn’t a lull anymore—it’s a launchpad for Q3 momentum.”
—Brian Tu, DTC strategist (LinkedIn)

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